Future Projections

Impact projections refer to the future and address questions such as “Will coral reefs die because of increasing water temperatures?”, “Do we have to expect more coastal flooding because of climate induced sea level rise”, “Will heatwaves become more often and more dangerous for human health?”.

The answers to these questions depend on human greenhouse gas emissions. So they can only be addresses in an “if-then” context such as “If CO2 emissions continue to rise as currently observed then…” or “If we manage to limit global warming to 2°C, then…”. That means that projections depend on the underlying assumptions about greenhouse gas emissions, the potential emission scenarios. In ISIMIP2 impact modelling teams have agreed on two scenarios, one reaching about 3°C of global warming at the end of the century (RCP6.0) and another one that is more in line with the Paris agreement reaching about 2°C of global warming. To project impacts according to associated climate change we also have to make assumption about socioeconomic developments (e.g. population increase). In ISIMIP2 we also asked modelling teams to make the same assumptions regarding these socioeconomic changes. So all the projections you can find here are based on this agreement.


Reports about Future Projections

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Will climate change lead to net decreases in the temperature attributable death burden?

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Germany Future projections

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Wim Thiery, Katja Frieler
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Nothing to gain for biodiversity? - We have to be very careful that emission reduction measures do not destroy what we want to protect

Alke Voskamp, Matthias F. Biber, Thomas Hickler, Christian Hof, Katrin Böhning-Gaese, Eva Katharina Engelhardt, Aidin Niamir, Stephen G. Willis
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Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude

Hong Xuan Do
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Will climate change increase the exposure to river flooding?

Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Fang Zhao, Sven Willner, Katja Frieler
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How could the occurrence of crop failures be affected by climate change?

Jan Volkholz
Global Future projections Extreme events Agriculture

Will climate change increase the exposure to droughts?

Stefan Lange, Ted Veldkamp, Hannes Müller Schmied, Katja Frieler
Global Future projections Extreme events Agriculture

One simulation, different conclusions – the baseline period makes the difference!

Stefan Liersch, M. Drews, T. Pilz, S. Salack, D. Sietz, V. Aich, M.A.D. Larsen, A. Gädeke, K. Halsnæs, W. Thiery, S. Huang, A. Lobanova, H. Koch, F.F. Hattermann
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Quantifying water stress in China, now and in the future

Xingcai Liu, Qiuhong Tang, Wenfeng Liu, Ted I.E. Veldkamp, Julien Boulange, Junguo Liu, Yoshihide Wada, Zhongwei Huang, Hong Yang
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How will climate change impact groundwater resources? A key but not yet fully resolved question

Robert Reinecke, Tim Trautmann, Hannes Müller Schmied
Global Future projections Water