Future Projections

Impact projections refer to the future and address questions such as “Will coral reefs die because of increasing water temperatures?”, “Do we have to expect more coastal flooding because of climate induced sea level rise”, “Will heatwaves become more often and more dangerous for human health?”.

The answers to these questions depend on human greenhouse gas emissions. So they can only be addresses in an “if-then” context such as “If CO2 emissions continue to rise as currently observed then…” or “If we manage to limit global warming to 2°C, then…”. That means that projections depend on the underlying assumptions about greenhouse gas emissions, the potential emission scenarios. In ISIMIP2 impact modelling teams have agreed on two scenarios, one reaching about 3°C of global warming at the end of the century (RCP6.0) and another one that is more in line with the Paris agreement reaching about 2°C of global warming. To project impacts according to associated climate change we also have to make assumption about socioeconomic developments (e.g. population increase). In ISIMIP2 we also asked modelling teams to make the same assumptions regarding these socioeconomic changes. So all the projections you can find here are based on this agreement.

SHOW FILTERS

Reports about Future Projections

Select Country
All World Afghanistan Albania Algeria Andorra Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas, The Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Brunei Darussalam Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cabo Verde Cambodia Cameroon Canada Caribbean island small states Cayman Islands Central African Republic Chad Chile China Colombia Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic EU27 Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Eswatini Ethiopia Falkland Islands (Malvinas) Faroe Islands Fiji Finland France French Guiana French Polynesia French Southern and Antarctic Territories Gabon Gambia, The Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Greenland Grenada Guadeloupe Guam Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Heard Island and McDonald Islands Honduras Hong Kong SAR, China Hungary Iceland India Indian Ocean island small state Indonesia Iran, Islamic Rep. Iraq Ireland Isle of Man Israel Italy Jamaica Jammu and Kashmir Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. Korea, Rep. Kuwait Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Lithuania Luxembourg Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Mali Malta Martinique Mauritania Mauritius Mayotte Mexico Micronesia, Fed. Sts. Moldova Mongolia Montenegro Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nepal Netherlands New Caledonia New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Niue North Macedonia Norway Oman Pacific island small states Pakistan Palau Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Puerto Rico Qatar Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Réunion Saint Pierre et Miquelon Samoa Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Sierra Leone Singapore Slovak Republic Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands South Sudan Spain Sri Lanka St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Sudan Suriname Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands Sweden Switzerland Syrian Arab Republic Taiwan, China Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Timor-Leste Togo Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Venezuela, RB Vietnam Virgin Islands (U.S.) West Bank and Gaza Western Sahara Yemen, Rep. Zambia Zimbabwe

No articles matched your search criteria

Nothing to gain for biodiversity? - We have to be very careful that emission reduction measures do not destroy what we want to protect

Alke Voskamp, Matthias F. Biber, Thomas Hickler, Christian Hof, Katrin Böhning-Gaese, Eva Katharina Engelhardt, Aidin Niamir, Stephen G. Willis
Global Future projections Biodiversity

Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude

Hong Xuan Do
Global Future projections Extreme events Water

Will climate change increase the exposure to river flooding?

Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Fang Zhao, Sven Willner, Katja Frieler
Global Future projections Extreme events Water

How could the occurrence of crop failures be affected by climate change?

Jan Volkholz
Global Future projections Extreme events Agriculture

Will climate change increase the exposure to droughts?

Stefan Lange, Ted Veldkamp, Hannes Müller Schmied, Katja Frieler
Global Future projections Extreme events Agriculture

One simulation, different conclusions – the baseline period makes the difference!

Stefan Liersch, M. Drews, T. Pilz, S. Salack, D. Sietz, V. Aich, M.A.D. Larsen, A. Gädeke, K. Halsnæs, W. Thiery, S. Huang, A. Lobanova, H. Koch, F.F. Hattermann
Global Future projections Water

Quantifying water stress in China, now and in the future

Xingcai Liu, Qiuhong Tang, Wenfeng Liu, Ted I.E. Veldkamp, Julien Boulange, Junguo Liu, Yoshihide Wada, Zhongwei Huang, Hong Yang
Future projections Water

How will climate change impact groundwater resources? A key but not yet fully resolved question

Robert Reinecke, Tim Trautmann, Hannes Müller Schmied
Global Future projections Water