The Paris Agreement and NDCs: are the national mitigation targets sufficient to stay below the 1.5-2°C limit?

Short introduction on Chile’s emissions

Although CO₂ is the driving force behind the temperature changes, other gases such as methane (CH₄) also contribute their share to global warming, for example through the exploitation of gas fields, and emissions by livestock. While methane is emitted much less than CO₂ on a global scale, it is a much stronger greenhouse gas (GHG). Scientists estimated the relative strength of the important Kyoto greenhouse gases so that we can convert all emissions to an equivalent of CO₂ emissions. For example, the emission of one ton of methane has approximately the warming effect of 25 tons of CO₂. The factor of 25 reflects the climate forcing on a 100-year time horizon, following the Global Warming Potential presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

With greenhouse gas emissions of approximately the equivalent of 111.2 mega tonnes of CO₂ (Mt CO₂eq), Chile contributed 0.23% to the global greenhouse gas emissions of 2017 (rank 50 - incl. EU27 on rank 3). All emissions estimates exclude emissions and absorption from land, which result from activities such as cutting down or planting of forests (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry: LULUCF). Emissions from bunker fuels (international aviation and shipping) were also excluded, as they are not accounted for in national totals.

For 2030, Chile’s global contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is projected to increase to approximately 0.27% (153.4 mega tonnes of CO₂ equivalent / rank 47 - incl. EU27 on rank 4). The emissions projections for Chile were derived by downscaling the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways’ (SSPs) “Middle-of-the-Road” baseline marker scenario SSP2. These pathways describe certain narratives of socio-economic developments and were, i.a., used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios that correspond to these developments. SSP2 is a narrative with little shifts in socio-economic patterns compared to historical ones, and is connected to medium socio-economic challenges for both climate mitigation and adaptation. While different models were used for each storyline, per SSP (SSPs1-5) one model was chosen as representative “marker scenario”. As the emissions projections are not readily available on country-level, but national estimates are important, the pathways were downscaled in the aftermath. In 2017, Chile represented 0.24% of the global population. Its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2017 were 0.38% of the global GDP.

Looking at the highest contributing emissions sectors and gases separately, we find that in 2017 the highest contributing emissions sectors were Energy and Agriculture (77.5% and 10.5%). Amongst the greenhouse gases that are considered in the Kyoto Protocol, the strongest contributor with 78.1% was CO₂. This was followed by CH₄ emissions, with a significantly lower share of 12.6%. When not considering the sectors and gases independently, but the sector-gas combinations instead, Energy CO₂ and Agriculture CH₄ (74.9% and 6.0%) represented the largest emissions in 2017.

Greenhouse gas mitigation and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

In 2015, the majority of countries agreed to the Paris Agreement (PA), with the goal of “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change” (Article 2.1.a). Countries stated their pledges and targets towards achieving the PA’s goals in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). With Article 4.4 of the Paris Agreement, Parties decided that “Developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets. Developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances.”

In it NDC, Chile communicates that “In terms of mitigation, we have made significant progress addressing the effects of climate change, in line with the demands of the science, incorporating the principle of ambition throughout the update of the NDC. This is reflected in the mitigation goal, replacing the previous emission intensity indicator, conditional and unconditional, with unconditional absolute indicators, with a goal of 95 MtCO₂eq [AR4] by 2030, an emissions maximum in 2025, and a GHG emissions budget of no more than 1,100 MtCO₂eq [AR4] in the period 2020-2030. This is an intermediate point on the road to carbon neutrality by 2050, which we have established in the Draft Framework Law on Climate Change that is currently under discussion in the National Congress of Chile.” (NDC, p. 7, GWP: p. 43).

Furthermore, the country specifies that “according to the National GHG Inventory, and the related forecasts, it is estimated that the analyzed actions would deliver a 30% reduction in the GHG balance by 2030, as per 2016 figures. In addition, under certain specific conditions (financial, markets, technological and political) Chile could exceed a 30% reduction, potentially with a reduction of up to 45% in net emissions by 2030, taking into account actions for GHG emissions mitigation and/or capture.” (NDC, p. 17). That the country provides its intended contribution in terms of absolute target emissions reduces the uncertainty when, e.g., aggregating targets to global emissions to then derive, i.a., the resulting end-of-century warming levels.

Chile has an “economy wide mitigation target”, and “considers GHG emissions from […] Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Agriculture and Waste, excluding the LULUCF sector.” (NDC, p. 43). LULUCF has a separate target, however (see below). All seven Kyoto GHGs are listed as covered (NDC, p. 43). In total, this results in 100% of Chile’s national emissions being covered. Its contribution also includes reductions in black carbon emissions (NDC, p. 18).

The country provides information on the NDC’s LULUCF component, including that “In terms of removals, the country must develop instruments to protect, maintain and increase natural carbon sinks, considering the multiple ecosystem services they provide (conservation and protection of biodiversity, water resources, ecosystems, and reduction of impacts from natural disasters, among others). Therefore, this commitment includes, within the integration component, a specific goal for the LULUCF sector that involves its role in achieving carbon neutrality and in the adaptation to the impacts of climate change (see integration component).” (NDC, p. 17). Additionally, the country has a list of LULUCF related commitments, in which “Chile commits to the sustainable management and recovery of 200,000 hectares of native forests, representing GHG captures of around 0.9 to 1.2 MtCO₂eq annually by 2030. […] Chile commits to afforest 200,000 hectares, of which at least 100,000 hectares will comprise permanent forest cover, with at least 70,000 hectares of native species. Recovery and afforestation will be undertaken primarily in land suitable for forest growth and/or priority areas for conservation and will represent captures of between 3.0 and 3.4 MtCO₂eq annually by 2030. […] By 2030, reduce emissions in the forestry sector associated with degradation and deforestation of the native forest by 25%, with respect to average emissions in the period 2001-2013. […] By 2025, peatland areas and any other types of wetland will be identified under a national inventory. […] By 2030, standardized metrics will be developed to evaluate the capacity of wetlands (especially peatlands) for climate change adaptation or mitigation, implementing actions to enhance these co-benefits in five pilot sites in public or private protected areas in the country. […] By 2021, a National Plan for the Restoration of Landscapes will be developed, which will consider restoration of 1,000,000 hectares of ecosystems, prioritizing those facing greatest social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities.” (NDC, p. 28-33). More information is available in the NDC (NDC, p. 27-31). For the long-term, the country mentions an objective of “GHG neutrality by 2050 (which assumes a capture from the LULUCF sector of 65 MtCO₂eq by 2050, similar to 2016).” (NDC, p. 45).

The NDC-assessment is based on Chile’s NDC submitted to the UNFCCC in April 2020.

The Figure below provides additional information, regarding both the baseline emissions used in our assessment and the quantified mitigated pathways for Chile.

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Baseline emissions and mitigated emissions pathways based on the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution. In terms of national emissions, we look at the SSP2 baseline marker scenario, and the emissions of all IPCC sectors. Contributions from LULUCF are excluded (exclLU), and the emissions are based on GWPs from AR4. The left panel (a) shows the baseline emissions, indicating the contributions of the Kyoto Greenhouse Gases CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, and the basket of F-gases to the national emissions. If we could extract baseline data exclLU from the NDC, you can see their values as black squares (converted from GWP SAR to AR4 if needed). In the right panel (b), the quantified mitigated emissions pathways are shown, based on information from the country’s NDC and also on non-NDC emissions baselines, per target conditionality and range (marked un-/conditional best/worst). Even though not all countries have targets with different conditionalities or ranges, we need assumptions for all four cases to build one global pathway per conditionality plus range combination and to derive corresponding temperature estimates. Therefore, we indicate these four pathways here. Per combination, we performed several quantifications with differing assumptions and show the median and the minimal and maximal pathways here. Additionally, if we could quantify the targets based on data extracted purely from the NDC - or if the targets were directly given in absolute emissions, these targets are shown as squares (in the GWP originally given in the NDC).

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FIG 1

Data sources and further information

• Historical emissions: PRIMAP-hist v2.1 (Guetschow et al., 2016, 2019).
• Historical socio-economic data: PRIMAP-hist Socio-Eco v2.1 (Guetschow et al., 2019).
• Projected emissions and socio-economic data: downscaled SSPs (Guetschow et al., 2020, 2020).
• NDC quantifications: NDCmitiQ (Guenther et al., 2020, 2021).
• GDP is given in purchasing power parity (PPP).
• Main emissions sectors (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC): Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Agriculture and LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry), also named AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use), and Waste.
• Kyoto GHG: basket of several GHGs, namely carbon dioxide (CO₂), Methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆), and since the second Kyoto Protocol period (2013-20) additionally nitrogen fluoride (NF₃).
• Global Warming Potentials (GWPs): GHGs have very different warming potentials. To make them comparable and for aggregation purposes, GWPs are used (how much energy will 1 ton of a certain gas absorb over a defined period of time, relative to the same mass of CO₂?).